The Safest Picks - the real definition of safe is “If I’m a GM will I get fired for taking this guy”. Something happened in the NFL when Bill Tobin took on Mel Kiper back in 1994. Tobin took on ESPN. He took on all the mock drafters. And it doesn’t get done very often any more. Chalk the win up for the media. You can lose your job for taking on the media. Unless you’re al davis.
Alabama players Marcel Dareus and Mark Ingram are probably the two safest picks in this draft.
Dareus can line up in at the 5 technique in a 3-4 but he’s probably too small to be a real stand out at it. As a 5 he’s a less powerful Luis Castillo. Or he can line-up inside at either tackle spot in a 4-3. But he gets a little high for a tackle and could end up more of a run stuffer like a Fred Robbins or a Nick Hayden than a Kevin Williams. But he’s well coached and has a good motor and he’ll play for you for 10 years. Plus everyone loves him. No one will criticize this pick. Dareus will be good but he won’t be a star. Just a nice safe pick.
Ingram , more of the same. He doesn’t have Chris Johnson speed but he’s great over the first 10 yards. That’s a good thing. He wants the football. That’s a good thing. But in power running situations the team often went to Richardson last year. Richardson also did his part wearing down defenses so that 10 yard speed looked even faster. Ingram isn’t powerful enough to make his own holes but he has good vision and he does make himself small in the hole. That’s a talent that is becoming increasingly rare in the college game because spread offenses have more created seams than a standard offense. Everything about him somehow screams average. In today’s 16 game NFL season average and being small in the hole results in 1300 rushing yards a year. No one will criticize 1300 rushing yards a year. (That’s 20 carries a game at a 4 yd clip for 16 games – 1280 yds).
Blaine Gabbert, Gabbert has spent as much time under center as the average auto mechanic has spent piloting a jet plane. But Gabbert is a safe pick. There are no character issues . He had a big season throwing little short passes all over the field. The scouts all love him. So you can pick Gabbert and the worst thing any one will say is he was rushed into the starting lineup. Let’s face it the only reason they criticize the Ryan Leaf pick is Peyton Manning was there. Alex Smith has had too many coordinators. David Carr got shell shocked in Houston. No one really criticizes the GM for making the face of the team QB choice. And teams keep falling for this. Here’s the thing – the smartest number 1 pick in recent memory was Mario Williams. And the GM in Houston was probably hung in effigy for not taking the QB to be the face of the team or the RB who got the Hiesmann Hype. QB’s can be a dime a dozen if it weren’t for free agency and salary concerns. But they are also safe picks because they touch the ball every play and no one can criticize you for taking the guy that guy. Unless he’s JaMarcus Russell.
Patrick Peterson, everyone is comparing Peterson to Champ Bailey. He reminds me more of Lawrence Johnson. Who ? Lawrence Johnson was a 5’11” 210 lb CB who came out of Wisconsin in 1979. He had blazing speed. He was big enough to man handle big receivers and fast enough to cover small ones. He played the run well too . In theory Johnson was the prototype CB. In practice Johnson was stiff through the hips. Often gave up too big a cushion or was late to diagnose. On the right team he may have made 1 heck of a tampa two OLB, a faster Cato June. Peterson is a 2011 version. He’s a little more experienced so his diagnostics are a bit better. He’ll be playing in a league that is still in love with WR who compare to Randy Moss although the times they are a changing. No one will criticize a pick of Peterson. He’s an SEC kid. He’s been in big games. He’s the best athlete available on defense. He’s a bit of a tweener between CB and S and he’ll be great covering big Wrs the little guys might give him problems. Right now the NFL has enough of a focus on big WR’s that Peterson may be the safest pick in the draft. But against a Wallace, a Welker, or some other crafty quick little guy he may have trouble.
AJ Green, again you can’t go wrong drafting Green everyone says he’s the best WR in the draft. What they mean to say is Green has the highest ceiling in the draft. Julio Jones is more physical . Jon Baldwin would argue the same. Edmund Gates far more athletic. Greg Little has better hands. Torrey Smith was better run after the catch potential. But Green is good. He may even be great and that makes him a safe pick. Green has a bit of an attitude but at WR that’s seems to be accepted. Wrs are supposed to be prima donnas so Green is safe. Safe as Charles Rogers. Safe as Mike Williams.
The scariest thing about the whole deal is Trent Dilfer could be your safe pick. It's all a popularity contest really. And once a player is labeled as a 1st round pick or not a first round pick or undrafted more often than not those labels stick. Chances are lessened and a guy with legitimate potential will never get a shot because it's just too risky to keep a player with a label around over a safe pick.
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