Thursday, March 24, 2011

Contrarians' Sleeper Picks - Players Who Could Outperform the First-Rounders

RB Derrick Locke - Kentucky  




Locke runs hard, he returns kicks, he catches the ball out of the backfield.  In short, he does it all, and people want to say he’s too small at 5’8” 190, but 190 isn’t small for 5’8”.  He put a 4.37 up for the forty.  He played through injuries, and if you looked at Kentucky's big games and a lot of big name players at other schools, Locke came up big.  Sure he fumbled on the 1 against a Tennessee team that always beats Kentucky, but he put up over 200 all purpose yards that day.  He played well against Florida, Ole Miss, Pitt, and, yes, even Auburn.  In fact, Locke had nearly 200 yards in an Auburn game in which he left early with an injury.  Let's face it, the guy can play.



CB Darrin Walls -  Notre Dame






Walls has all the tools, prototype size, and good speed. Plus, he’s a good tackler.  So why isn’t he being mentioned as a top cornerback?  The answer is pretty simple if you watched the Irish play.  In the scheme in which Walls played, he was asked to cover a side of the field more than a particular man because Notre Dame was down to two safeties for most of the season.  Both of those safeties were former linebackers .  They played pretty well all things considered.  But against speed guys and smaller quicker players they had some issues. Walls and Gary Gray were asked to eliminate those issues by playing the whole field, even if that meant playing a soft coverage and giving up plays in front of them.  Watch Walls when the rubber met the road in big game passing situations and he was where he was supposed to be.



CB Johnny Patrick - Louisville  








Best coverage corner in college last year, but scouts have fallen in love with big corners in this draft.  Patrick started out as a raw athlete, and it clicked last year. His size is still pretty good, and he is quick enough to cover the smaller wide receivers, of which there are still more of than those who are 6’4” and 220.  While Peterson is the perfect build to beat up on a big physical wide outs, Patrick is the corner in this draft that can mirror guys like Greg Jennings, Johnny Knox,  Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, and Santonio Holmes.  Those guys need to be covered  too.  Some say Patrick has a track mentality, but when was being a fast corner a negative ?  Remember, Deion Sanders ran track too.



QB Colin Kaepernick - Nevada





Kaepernick has great size and athleticism, and he played in a system similar to Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s with one huge exception:  When Kaepernick pulled the ball down, he was expected to  carry it, not locate a WR and throw on the move.  He has to learn, but he has the arm strength , the team first mentality, and the athleticism to become a stud.  If you look at the top prospects at the position – Newton, Locker, Mallet and Gabbert-- they all have similar concerns and similar abilities, but they went to more well-known football schools.  The four should move over because Kaepernick can play.



DE JJ Watt - Wisconsin






JJ Watt may be the best defensive lineman in the draft right now. He doesn’t have the potential of some of the higher picks based on the athleticism.  One draft report had a statement that Watt made his tackles and sacks based on effort listed among his negatives. We’ll take that negative.  He’s big enough to play a 3-4 end, but at the combine, he looked athletic enough to play a 4-3 end.  He kind of went from looking like a young Aaron Smith to looking like a young Dan Hampton.  That’s good.



LB Colin McCarthy- Miami  






McCarthy is ready.  He’s smart, looks like a football player, and understands the game.  He has to play in a 4-3.  He has a bit of an injury history and there are not a lot of teams playing a 4-3 these days, but you could do a lot worse taking a chance on a potential stud who showed up all season for Miami. Miami has produced some pretty good players at this position in the past.



LB Greg Jones - Michigan State






As a junior, Jones played lighter and faster than he did as a senior.  Then he showed up even heavier at the combine.  Apparently he wanted to show he could take on blockers.  Avoid them, Greg; it's what you do best.  He’s another guy that needs a 4-3 set. And those guys are rare.  He did not seem to have the athleticism to play the weak side, but he could play the strong side or the middle in a 4-3.




LB Ross Homan - Ohio State






Homan is like Jones and McCarthy, but he may be a little better suited to the strong side because his cover skills are slightly more advanced.  He’s an Ohio kid who knows how to play football. He’s best suited for a 4-3, and both Ohio teams will play the 4-3 this season.  He’s probably capable of adding 15 pounds and still playing fast.  Some scouts say he’s faster than Lofa Tatupu right now.  That’s a pretty good 4-3 middle reference point.




OC Stefan Wisniewski - Penn State  






The kid is an Academic All-American.  His uncle spent years as a premier offensive lineman.  He’s been groomed in a very good system for interior lineman at Penn State.  The guy can play.  In the old days he’s be a first round pick.  But with free agency and players moving around, the goal is to find a guy who is big enough to step in now rather than someone who will learn a scheme and produce.  So a 350-pound guy like Marcus Cannon will go before a football player like Wisniewski.  Not that Cannon is bad, he’s just not as skilled while being 50 pounds bigger.  In today’s game, bigger may not be better, but it can step in a lot faster.  Guys like Pork Chop Womack, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis, and Mike Williams have made careers on size.




RB Robert Hughes - Notre Dame






Somehow for over 4 years with the Fighting Irish, Hughes has labored under coaches who refused to accept the obvious:  The team was better when he was on the field.  He’s not perfect. He’s too slow.  But the guy never goes backwards, and with some of those lines at Notre Dame during his career, that’s quite an accomplishment.  Ben Jarvus Green Ellis is slower than paint drying, but he follows his blocks and doesn’t go down on initial contact.  There is value in that.  Hughes has value too.  He blocks.  He can catch,  and there’s just a bit of Jerome Bettis in this big back.  Every now and again he’ll scamper 30 or more yards and leave you wondering why he isn’t even in the rotation.  Shame on Charlie Weiss and Brian Kelly.  




OG Will Rackley – Lehigh  






Rackley plays guard. That’s strike one.  But he was the best interior lineman at the Senior Bowl, as others struggled with positional changes and taking on better competition.  This guy stepped up to the plate.  While Pouncey has the pedigree and the big school background, Rackley seems to be a player groomed for his role as an interior lineman.




OG Ben Ijanalana – Villanova






Injalana is rated higher than Rackley.  He’s supposed to be very good, but he’s changing positions.  Still he does have a chance to be better than Pouncey.  The size is similar, and he hasn’t had the help Pouncey had in college.

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