Random Draft Day Thoughts

Random thoughts  arranged in alphabetical order by position: 

Center – It’s a decent  crop of centers.  If you move John Moffett into the mix there it gets even better. Conventional wisdom says none of these guys is a first round pick.  But these are guys that will last 10 years and help a run game and a pass game.  You kind of need a center to play the game.  The problem is most of these guys will have trouble with huge nose tackles.

Cornerback – the top corners don’t really look like corners.  Peterson is 6’0” and 220 that’s the size of Wilber Marshall or Lawrence Johnson a much lesser known player from the University of Wisconsin and the Buffalo Bills.  Jimmy Smith looks like Troy Vincent but couldn’t run with Vincent.  Aaron Williams has admitted to being more comfy at safety, a corner shouldn’t admit that.  So Prince Amukamara  looks the most like a corner of the top guys  but…they are talking about all four as 1^st round picks and 2 being mentioned in the top ten.  They have to many questions about hip movement for that – get ‘em on dancing with the stars doing the samba  and doing it better than Warren Sapp and – they’d sky rocket but big corners with small wide outs could be problematic.

Defensive End – 4-3,  with the exception of JJ Watt the 4-3 ends that are slated for the first round look a little light in the seat.  That happens with  4-3 defensive ends but the Chicago Bears showed that athleticism isn’t solely possessed by little guys with the duo of Idonije and Peppers.  Aldon Smith reminds a bit of Aaron Maybin who rocketed up the charts on athleticism.   Robert  Quinn doesn’t have much experience but  has the speed to push the corner.  Some of the other ends could be better fits as 3-4 linebackers.  That’s a size issue for some but for others, like Bruce Miller or Ryan Kerrigan or Sam Acho, they have a football sense or a cerebral approach that puts them  in a class with guys like Vrabel and Bruschi – that’s a pretty good place to be.  Quinn, Watt,  Bowers even with the knee.

Defensive End 3-4.  The five technique is tricky,  it takes a big strong man who knows how to use leverage.  Usually you don’t find first year players there.  Usually you don’t find defensive ends there.  Tall tackles  often make the best  3-4 ends.  They’ve  learned about pad level by trying to stay low inside and they’re used to the inglorious task of taking on blocker s for others.  Buyer beware.  You may not see this guy on the field much in year 1 and he may never develop the strength or humility to serve well. 

Defensive Tackle – This has become the best crop in the draft.  Dareus and Fairley are right up at the top.  Marvin Austin has surprised and impressed some more people.  What has Austin done on the field since high school though ?  Kendrick Ellis from Hampton could end up being the top DT in this draft but he needs to learn pad level (He could also be a very impressive 3-4 end). 

Fullback – Whatever happened to tandems like Walter Payton and Roland Harper  or Mack and Byner,  or Bleier and Harris ?  Ego’s happened.  Imagine Bleier being billed as a great lead blocker at 212 lbs.  Or the best blocker on your team being a 202 lb running back named Payton.  Somewhere along the line ( it started in Washington with  the H-back and John Riggins and progressed to the west coast where the H-back became Tom Rathman,  but Rathman could run some too.  Now the FB is just a small G.  Probably the one man on the field with the size and quickness to lead and pull. It’s a shame.  Guys like Joseph Addai could have played with Payton or Harris.  Not in this draft the ball carriers are slow.  The blockers are slower.  Nothing to get excited about here.

Guard – you rarely see Guards go in round 1 but Guards make the running game go. They should go higher than they do. Most teams seem satisfied to get the fat guy that can step in now especially because they’re usually playing 3-4 teams  but a good guard is a rare commodity in today’s NFL. They seem to be largely converted tackles.   Most lack footwork.  This years class isn’t impressive and most of the guys that will play Guard will be converted tackles learning on the run.  If your team is drafting Left Tackles and having them end up as guards  well  your teams offense is in trouble.  This year Cannon and Hudson and Pouncey and Watkins get high round marks they may or may not make the conversion depending on how much they want to work.  Only nose tackles are more created by effort than the offensive guard. 

H-Back – there are a bunch of decent H-backs playing every position for WR to RB to TE to QB available in this draft.  Many won’t be physical enough .  Tulsa’s Charles Clay is a football player.  Rob Housler and Cam Jordan are tight ends that are light in the seat and need to play on the move.  But a QB like Tyrod Taylor who is a better runner than passer and understands the routes  could be an intriguing addition at a H-Back or W-Back slot.  A guy like Taylor  could return the NFL to a triple option,  crazier things have happened look at the trouble that silly wild cat formation caused.  Similarly Jerrod Johnson from A&M reminds of just a little of Boston QB Jim Jensen  a guy who made a living in the NFL for 12 years as a back-up  QB, RB, TE, WR.  Michael Robinson made the switch in San Francisco.  Taylor  brings more speed than either of those guys – but he’d have to be willing to take 2^nd billing, block, and be more Jim Jensen than Mike Vick – that’s a tall order for a guy playing a position that comes with an ego.

Inside Linebacker – see 4-3 end and 3-4 olb.

Linebacker – there are two guys that aren’t system specific in this draft Von Miller and Quan Sturdivant. Miller is better but Sturdivant is a heady player that could excel in any defense. 

Middle Linebacker – Last year’s McClain was a fluke this year it’s back to small middle guys like Ross Homan,  Greg Jones and some others who avoid blockers and get lost in traffic.  Colin McCarthy is better at this spot than most will give him credit for. 

Outside Linebacker  (3-4) Aldon Smith has to make a change to this position.  Justin Houston has the tools but was silly enough to fail a drug test just before the draft.  Guys like Kerrigan, Acho, Trattou, and Bruce miller seem to fit better inside. 

Outside Linebacker (4-3) the only true weakside backer in this draft is Bruce Carter and that says a ton.  Akeem Ayers can play the strong side.  Dontay Moch has great upside but you have to wonder when it will all click for him and he’ll be more than an incredibly athletic special teamer.  If Moch gets the reads down and becomes more football player  than athlete he’ll be incredible.  Andrew Moten and Doug Hogue have nice speed and might be able to play weak or strong side.  And Herzlich has the heart of a champion and a fine bc pedigree but ran some terrible times- a great college linebacker – but former teammate Brian Toal was a great college player who didn’t get drafted either.

Quarterback – everyone gets excited about the QB position and every year teams take one in the first round that won’t be ready to play for 2 or 3 years and then they play him and are shocked to find, he isn’t ready.  This year all the top guys have warts.  They could end up great if they can sit and learn.  But teams don’t often pay 1^st round selections  to sit and learn.   Carolina had to rush Jimmy Claussen along last year.  So this year if you want a Vince Young,  trade for Vince he’ll be cheaper than the Vince Young clone coming out of Auburn and he’s already house broken.  If you want a care taker call Denver and ask how much a Kyle Orton costs.  Minnesota really ended up missing Sage Rosenfels by the end of last season.  There are a lot of guys with  the tools to play NFL QB – from Ryan Leaf to David Carr but they need a stable environment in which to grow and learn.  And Teams should take a QB somewhere between round 4-7 every  year,  so many of those guys have become great trade bait from Charlie Whitehurst, to Mark Brunell, to Matt Hasselback, to…. You get the picture. 

Receiver – This position is loaded. Watch for some of the football players from down  in the smaller school s though.  Many bigger programs are playing offenses that focus on stop routes and sitting in a spot in a zone rather than running true routes. 

Return Specialist – Florida’s Jeff Demps over Jacquiz Rogers hands down.  Demps is smaller and more elusive  and  Rogers is a LOT like Chicago Garrett Wolfe. Wolfe is a great special teams gunner but he the speed just wasn’t there.  And the short arms limited his effectiveness out of the backfield.  He didn’t turn out to be as tough inside or as fast as former bear Dennis Gentry. 

Contrarians' Top Safe Picks

The Safest Picks -  the real definition of safe is “If I’m a GM will I get fired for taking this guy”.  Something happened in the NFL when  Bill Tobin took on Mel Kiper back in 1994.  Tobin took on ESPN.  He took on all the mock drafters.  And it doesn’t get done very often any more.  Chalk the win up for the media.  You can lose your job  for taking on the media.  Unless you’re al davis.

Alabama  players  Marcel Dareus and Mark Ingram are probably the two safest picks in this draft.

Dareus can line up in at the 5 technique in a 3-4 but he’s probably too small to be a real stand out at it. As a 5 he’s a less powerful Luis Castillo.  Or he can line-up inside at either tackle spot in a 4-3.  But he gets a little high for a tackle  and could end up more of a run stuffer like a Fred Robbins or a Nick Hayden than a Kevin Williams.  But he’s well coached and has a good motor and he’ll play for you for 10 years.  Plus everyone loves him.  No one will criticize this pick.  Dareus will be good but he won’t be a star. Just a nice safe pick.

Ingram , more of the same.  He doesn’t have Chris Johnson speed but he’s great over the first 10 yards. That’s a good thing.  He wants the football.  That’s a good thing.  But in power running situations the team often went to Richardson last year.  Richardson also did his part wearing down defenses  so that 10 yard speed looked even faster. Ingram isn’t powerful enough to make his own holes but he has good vision and he does make himself small in the hole. That’s a talent that is becoming increasingly rare in  the college game because spread offenses have  more created seams than a standard offense.  Everything about him somehow screams  average.  In today’s 16 game NFL season average and being small in the hole results in 1300 rushing yards a year.  No one will criticize 1300 rushing yards a year.  (That’s 20 carries a game at a 4 yd clip for 16 games – 1280 yds).

Blaine Gabbert,  Gabbert has spent as much time under center as the average auto mechanic has spent piloting a jet plane.  But Gabbert is a safe pick.  There are no character issues .  He had a big season throwing little short passes all over the field.  The scouts all love him.  So you can pick Gabbert and the worst thing any one will say is he was rushed into the starting lineup.  Let’s face it the only reason they criticize the Ryan Leaf pick is Peyton Manning was there.  Alex Smith has had too many coordinators.  David Carr got shell shocked in Houston.  No one really criticizes the GM for making the face of the team QB choice.  And teams  keep falling for this. Here’s the thing – the smartest  number 1 pick in recent memory was Mario Williams.  And the GM in Houston was probably hung in effigy for not taking the QB to be the face of the team or the RB who got the Hiesmann Hype.  QB’s can be a dime a dozen  if it weren’t for free agency  and salary concerns.  But they are also safe picks because they touch the ball every play and no one can criticize you for taking the guy that guy. Unless he’s JaMarcus Russell.

Patrick Peterson,  everyone is comparing Peterson to Champ Bailey.  He reminds me more of Lawrence Johnson.  Who ? Lawrence Johnson was a 5’11” 210 lb CB who came out of Wisconsin in 1979.  He had blazing speed.  He was big enough to man handle big receivers and fast enough to cover small ones.  He played the run well too .  In theory Johnson was the prototype CB.  In practice Johnson was stiff through the hips. Often gave up too big a cushion  or was late to diagnose.  On the right team  he may have made 1 heck of a tampa two OLB, a faster Cato June.  Peterson is a 2011 version.  He’s a little more experienced so his diagnostics are a bit better.  He’ll be playing in a league that  is still in love with WR who compare to Randy Moss although the times they are a changing.  No one will criticize a pick of Peterson.  He’s an SEC kid. He’s been in big games. He’s the best athlete available on defense.  He’s a bit of a tweener between CB and S and he’ll be great covering big Wrs the little guys might give him problems.  Right now the NFL has enough of a focus on big WR’s that Peterson may be the safest pick in the draft.  But against a Wallace,  a Welker,  or some other crafty quick little guy he may have trouble.

AJ Green,  again you can’t go wrong drafting Green everyone says he’s the best WR in the draft.  What they mean to say is Green has the highest ceiling in the draft. Julio Jones is more physical .  Jon Baldwin would argue the same.   Edmund Gates far more athletic.  Greg Little has better hands.  Torrey Smith was better run after the catch potential.  But Green is good. He may even be great  and that makes him a safe pick.  Green has a bit of an attitude but at WR that’s seems to be accepted.  Wrs are supposed to be prima donnas  so Green is safe. Safe as Charles Rogers. Safe as Mike Williams.

The scariest thing about the whole deal is Trent Dilfer could be your safe pick. It's all a popularity contest really.  And once a player is labeled as a 1st round pick or not a first round pick or undrafted more often than not those labels stick.  Chances are lessened and a guy with legitimate potential will never get a shot because it's just too risky to keep a player with a label around over a safe pick.