RB Derrick Locke - Kentucky
Locke runs hard, he returns kicks, he catches the ball out of the backfield. In short, he does it all, and people want to say he’s too small at 5’8” 190, but 190 isn’t small for 5’8”. He put a 4.37 up for the forty. He played through injuries, and if you looked at Kentucky's big games and a lot of big name players at other schools, Locke came up big. Sure he fumbled on the 1 against a Tennessee team that always beats Kentucky, but he put up over 200 all purpose yards that day. He played well against Florida, Ole Miss, Pitt, and, yes, even Auburn. In fact, Locke had nearly 200 yards in an Auburn game in which he left early with an injury. Let's face it, the guy can play.
CB Darrin Walls - Notre Dame
Walls has all the tools, prototype size, and good speed. Plus, he’s a good tackler. So why isn’t he being mentioned as a top cornerback? The answer is pretty simple if you watched the Irish play. In the scheme in which Walls played, he was asked to cover a side of the field more than a particular man because Notre Dame was down to two safeties for most of the season. Both of those safeties were former linebackers . They played pretty well all things considered. But against speed guys and smaller quicker players they had some issues. Walls and Gary Gray were asked to eliminate those issues by playing the whole field, even if that meant playing a soft coverage and giving up plays in front of them. Watch Walls when the rubber met the road in big game passing situations and he was where he was supposed to be.
CB Johnny Patrick - Louisville
Best coverage corner in college last year, but scouts have fallen in love with big corners in this draft. Patrick started out as a raw athlete, and it clicked last year. His size is still pretty good, and he is quick enough to cover the smaller wide receivers, of which there are still more of than those who are 6’4” and 220. While Peterson is the perfect build to beat up on a big physical wide outs, Patrick is the corner in this draft that can mirror guys like Greg Jennings, Johnny Knox, Wes Welker, Mike Wallace, and Santonio Holmes. Those guys need to be covered too. Some say Patrick has a track mentality, but when was being a fast corner a negative ? Remember, Deion Sanders ran track too.
QB Colin Kaepernick - Nevada
Kaepernick has great size and athleticism, and he played in a system similar to Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert’s with one huge exception: When Kaepernick pulled the ball down, he was expected to carry it, not locate a WR and throw on the move. He has to learn, but he has the arm strength , the team first mentality, and the athleticism to become a stud. If you look at the top prospects at the position – Newton, Locker, Mallet and Gabbert-- they all have similar concerns and similar abilities, but they went to more well-known football schools. The four should move over because Kaepernick can play.
DE JJ Watt - Wisconsin
JJ Watt may be the best defensive lineman in the draft right now. He doesn’t have the potential of some of the higher picks based on the athleticism. One draft report had a statement that Watt made his tackles and sacks based on effort listed among his negatives. We’ll take that negative. He’s big enough to play a 3-4 end, but at the combine, he looked athletic enough to play a 4-3 end. He kind of went from looking like a young Aaron Smith to looking like a young Dan Hampton. That’s good.
LB Colin McCarthy- Miami
McCarthy is ready. He’s smart, looks like a football player, and understands the game. He has to play in a 4-3. He has a bit of an injury history and there are not a lot of teams playing a 4-3 these days, but you could do a lot worse taking a chance on a potential stud who showed up all season for Miami. Miami has produced some pretty good players at this position in the past.
LB Greg Jones - Michigan State
As a junior, Jones played lighter and faster than he did as a senior. Then he showed up even heavier at the combine. Apparently he wanted to show he could take on blockers. Avoid them, Greg; it's what you do best. He’s another guy that needs a 4-3 set. And those guys are rare. He did not seem to have the athleticism to play the weak side, but he could play the strong side or the middle in a 4-3.
LB Ross Homan - Ohio State
Homan is like Jones and McCarthy, but he may be a little better suited to the strong side because his cover skills are slightly more advanced. He’s an Ohio kid who knows how to play football. He’s best suited for a 4-3, and both Ohio teams will play the 4-3 this season. He’s probably capable of adding 15 pounds and still playing fast. Some scouts say he’s faster than Lofa Tatupu right now. That’s a pretty good 4-3 middle reference point.
OC Stefan Wisniewski - Penn State
The kid is an Academic All-American. His uncle spent years as a premier offensive lineman. He’s been groomed in a very good system for interior lineman at Penn State. The guy can play. In the old days he’s be a first round pick. But with free agency and players moving around, the goal is to find a guy who is big enough to step in now rather than someone who will learn a scheme and produce. So a 350-pound guy like Marcus Cannon will go before a football player like Wisniewski. Not that Cannon is bad, he’s just not as skilled while being 50 pounds bigger. In today’s game, bigger may not be better, but it can step in a lot faster. Guys like Pork Chop Womack, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis, and Mike Williams have made careers on size.
RB Robert Hughes - Notre Dame
Somehow for over 4 years with the Fighting Irish, Hughes has labored under coaches who refused to accept the obvious: The team was better when he was on the field. He’s not perfect. He’s too slow. But the guy never goes backwards, and with some of those lines at Notre Dame during his career, that’s quite an accomplishment. Ben Jarvus Green Ellis is slower than paint drying, but he follows his blocks and doesn’t go down on initial contact. There is value in that. Hughes has value too. He blocks. He can catch, and there’s just a bit of Jerome Bettis in this big back. Every now and again he’ll scamper 30 or more yards and leave you wondering why he isn’t even in the rotation. Shame on Charlie Weiss and Brian Kelly.
OG Will Rackley – Lehigh
Rackley plays guard. That’s strike one. But he was the best interior lineman at the Senior Bowl, as others struggled with positional changes and taking on better competition. This guy stepped up to the plate. While Pouncey has the pedigree and the big school background, Rackley seems to be a player groomed for his role as an interior lineman.
OG Ben Ijanalana – Villanova
Injalana is rated higher than Rackley. He’s supposed to be very good, but he’s changing positions. Still he does have a chance to be better than Pouncey. The size is similar, and he hasn’t had the help Pouncey had in college.
What does Cullen Jenkins do ? And where do the Packers keep finding replacement players ?
Seriously – Sam Shields, Tramon Williams, Frank Zombo, Eric Walden, James Starks. That’s one heck of a scouting/ player development program.
Of course the Packers will survive even if Jenkins leaves.
A bigger concern may be at guard, with both Colledge and Spitz approaching free agency, or with left tackle Chad Clifton approaching middle age.
So Baylor's Danny Watkins makes a little more sense than JJ Watt, but if Watt remains way down here, the Packers may go with the home grown talent.
Watkins should be the pick.
The Super Bowl's runner-up doesn't need much analysis. They will compete again in 2011 no matter whom they pick.
That’s a make shift offensive line in Pittsburgh, especially at the tackle positions. Sure Max Starks and Willie Colon went down to injury, but they’re still Max Starks and Willie Colon. The guards didn’t play much better.
On Defense Ike Taylor has been the most consistent cornerback and could leave as a free agent. If Taylor leaves it would create problems. If Starks and Colon come back the offensive line could improve. So offensive line and cornerback are needs. Pittsburgh loves defense, and they'll go with defense in the draft with Jimmy Smith, the cornerback out of Colorado.
The Jets have a lot of free agent wide receivers; they may be able to re-sign some of them.
They also have a defensive line led by an 11-year vet and a 14-year vet at DE supported by some guy named Mike DeVito. DeVito played well.
They could and possibly should go with JJ Watt.
That would be the safe choice. Rex Ryan doesn’t play it safe.
There’s a kid at Hampton named Kenrick Ellis, who threw people around in his all star appearance. He’s 6’5” 345lbs and disrupts offensive schemes with his power or quickness.
That sounds like Haloti Ngata to me.
You don’t get a chance to Draft Haloti Ngata types with the 30th pick in round 1 very often.
When you do you should take it.
You have to give Lovie Smith credit for sailing into the NFC title game with the league 30th-ranked offense.
If 33-year old Olin Kruetz leaves, that would probably shift Edwin Williams to the Center spot. That’s probably not a good thing.
The Bears will also cite the improved play of the line down the stretch. Don’t buy it. They gave up 56 sacks. Sure it’s Mike Martz, and the deep drops always result in sacks, but 56?!
Against the Giants the whole team looked like matadors. Against the Redskins Albert Haynesworth tallied a sack by pushing the man blocking him in the the quarterback.
This line was bad, ranking last in the league. Its best player was probably rookie right tackle J’Marcus Webb.
The Bears picks on the O-line have been more towards athletes like Chris Williams and Lance Louis than towards tough guys. They’ll probably take a DeMarcus Love and proclaim a player built like a guard to be their left tackle of the future.
They should take Kris O’Dowd or Danny Watkins, both of who appear better suited for interior play.
They’ll have to look at the tackle position too, so if Kruetz leaves it should be O’Dowd. If Kruetz stays it should be Watkins, but, being the Bears, it probably won’t be either.
The pick should be Kris O’Dowd – USC Centers have a great NFL track record.
This will be New England's second pick of the first round.
Not too long ago this pick would have been a no-brainer-- JJ Watt the defensive end out of Wisconsin. But something seems to have happened to Watt. He’s slimmed down, apparently not satisfied with being cast as Adam Carriker or Aaron Smith as a 3-4 DE.
The other 3-4 end out there is Cam Heyward from Ohio State, who at 6'5" and 285 pounds, is now stouter than Watt.
In the New England defense stout matters.
This is also a team that could use a wide receiver and some offensive line help. Most experts would say the Patriots need a running back.
So, the Pats will go with either Watt, Heyward, or the best player still on the board in cornerback Jimmy Smith.
It will depend on interviews.
I’d look for the Patriots to move up- but as it stands – Heyward should be the pick.
In Atlanta, a lot depends on what happens with Harvey Dahl, Justin Blalock, and Tyson Clabo. They’ve been keys to the run game in Atlanta and the protectors of Matt Ryan. The big concern on offense is Tony Gonzalez's age and pending retirement, but the front five started every game together in 2010.
Defensively, they need to bring back Brent Grimes and improve the play opposite John Abraham. The tackle rotation, the defensive backfield and the linebackers all played very well in 2010. There are also young players who may be able to provide that help opposite Abraham.
So for a team with few needs signing their own is the biggest factor.
If they’re able to bring back the four free agents, it narrows the pick to Jimmy Smith of Colorado and Notre Dame tight end Kyle Rudolph.
In a skimpy tight end class, Rudolph is a great choice this late.
The Ravens have three safeties facing free agency. However, the one that isn’t a free agent is the biggest concern. Free safety Ed Reed talked about retiring prior to last season. He showed that he still has what it takes to play at a high level. So safety is a bit of a concern.
The Ravens might also want to go offensive line or wide receiver considering the age and injury issues at those positions.
The value is at the free safety spot, and the need is at the free safety spot. We think Ozzie Newsome, arguably the best general manager in the NFL, goes with Rahim Moore out of UCLA. Even with a healthy Ed Reed, he took Tom Zbikowski to back up Reed.
Of course there is also the "problem" of Reed playing another 5 years and the team never even seeing Moore on the field.
Seattle will look to upgrade its 27th-ranked defense on draft day. Cal's Cameron Jordan and Iowa's Adrian Clayborn are the top two remaining pass-rushing defensive ends. Depending on the scheme, they could probably move inside. So the question is whether to draft an end who might end up being a tackle or just take a tackle.
Odds are the Seahawks go with Jordan, who has gotten a lot of hype in the pre-season.
Physically the team should probably go with Corey Liuget from Illinois, who is a more natural fit at tackle.
But Jordan’s motor makes him a worthwhile selection.
Let's look at the Saints by the numbers:
11 – the amount in millions the Saints would have to pay under-performing reggie bush;
6- the number of running backs New Orleans had on the disabled list last season;
5- the yards per carry average of Chris Ivory;
4- perhaps the most important number, the number of offensive lineman who are free agents.
New Orleans has a quarterback in Brees, wide receivers, tight ends, and running back possibilities, but they aren’t going anywhere without an offensive line.
This pick is simple-- Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi is the best remaining offensive lineman.
The Eagles look pretty well stacked. They have a huge offensive line, with Winston Justice playing adequately at right tackle. The skill positions look solid.
The defensive line has a nice rotation at defensive tackle, and those tweener ends that get to the quarterback are there. The defensive backs are a little small, but they cover pretty well. The Linebackers played very well in the system last year.
This year three of those linebackers-- Omar Gaither, Ernie Sims, and Stewart Bradley (arguably their three best linebackers )-- could all leave as free agents.
So linebacker makes sense. North Carolina's Bruce Carter is an athlete that could replace Sims on the outside or challenge Moises Fokou and Akeem Jordan on the left.
If all three linebackers return, the Eagles could go with a big wide receiver to complement speedsters Jeremy Maclin, DeSean Jackson and the steady Jason Avant. They could even go with an offensive tackle.
But at this point the team's needs and the players who fit those needs with a high round-grade match best at linebacker, so the Eagles will "settle" for Carter, leading Eagles' fans across the globe to boo.
If there is one thing the Indianapolis Colts need it is health, especially at the wide receiver spot. They could use a safety to pair with Antoine Bethea. Their defensive tackle rotation was finally starting to look a little more stout, and now they stand to lose Daniel Muir. The Colts win with Peyton Manning's offense, so they need to start rebuilding the offensive line; they have actually done pretty well quietly reloading there.
This year they may look at replacing Charlie Johnson at left tackle or an aging Ryan Diem on the right side.
So who would they take? Left tackle Tyron Smith out of USC makes sense, but a better fit would be Anthony Castonzo from Boston College. Castonzo is a Rhodes scholar candidate in bio-chemistry. He's smart, and he learns from his mistakes. Plus, he has the size to play on either side. He can be groomed or he can step in.
That said, Joseph Addai struggled with injuries last year and former first-round pick Donald Brown found himself third on the depth chart behind Dominic Rhodes and Addai. So running back is a concern for the Colts, and Alabama running back Mark Ingram is still available.
A lot depends on your views on Addai and Brown. Running back seems to be a position that can be addressed later in the draft than offensive tackle. So give the slight edge to Castonzo.
Kansas City was this close last year after adding Kendrick Lewis and Eric Berry to the defensive backfield. Rookie safeties can often make the biggest impact of a drafted player.
Maybe they could use a little depth along the offensive line. They could use a linebacker, but really only if you don’t believe in Andy Studebacker.
Nose tackle is an issue. Last year it was filled by Ron Edwards and Shaun Smith. Both players played well enough, but both are free agents, and free agency may be the best way to attack a position that players generally need to grow into.
So the best player available is Purdue linebacker Ryan Kerrigan. While he’s not a great fit if you believe in Studebacker, he is a solid pass rusher who knows the game well enough to eventually fit at inside linebacker or outside linebacker in a 3-4 and provide a pass rush from either position. Kerrigan is the smart choice.
Tampa Bay is a team that had a lot of injuries and was still just one win away from beating out Super Bowl champions Green Bay for that final playoff spot. Maybe Raheem Morris was right; maybe they were the best team in the NFC.
Defensively, the 19th ranked Tampa Bay defense added some girth up front. The ends are young and may improve, and the linebackers show promise. One spot where they were a little thin was corner back. No one played badly, and the team signed Myron Lewis for four years, which probably means they see him taking over for Ronde Barber if Barber decides not to play into his forties.
Offensively, quarterback Josh Freeman had big targets in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn. The O-line could be a bit better. So if I’m a team with a 250 pound running back in LeGarrette Blount and a quarterback I want to protect, I’m looking at the offensive line. The best fit for them might be a player that can step in at G and get groomed to be a tackle.
Derrek Sherrod, an offensive tackle from Missippi State could be that player.
Last year Donald Penn and James Lee looked pretty good at tackle. Not perfect, but good. That makes Sherrod a slightly better choice than Carimi or Costanzo. He’s slighty more mobile than either of those two, and when your quarterback is as mobile as Freeman is, that matters.
Before the combine it was pretty obvious the Giants needed a linebacker. They really need a smart instinctive linebacker like Colin McCarthy out of Miami.
McCarthy is a better football player than the player the Giants will take, but Martez Wilson is so superior as a physical specimen it doesn’t really matter.
Had it been close the Giants may have done the smart thing and taken the football player.
Wilson is very much like Aaron Curry. He could even end up sneaking up draft boards based on that comparison; after all, there were those that thought Curry should be the number one pick when he came out.
Wilson played the outside and the inside in his two years on the field in college. He performed better in the middle, but he still doesn’t seem purely instinctive in his reads or drops but can mask that with great athleticism.
After his workout there is no doubt he’s the number two linebacker in this draft.
Now that the early entry is making money, will he work to develop the habits and hone his skills like a Ray Lewis did and Colin McCarthy has? If Wilson works – really applies himself to his trade and goes to a 4-3 -- there is no reason he can’t become a truly great linebacker.
The Chargers' defense is in transition. They could use some help in the defensive backfield, but they are okay and have depth. On the defensive line Antonio Garay played very well at the tackle spot, but defensive ends Jacques Cesaire's and Luis Castillo's performance dropped slightly. The Chargers have some interesting young players in nose tackle Cam Thomas and and Ogemdi Nwagbuo, and in defensive end Vaughn Martin. When it comes to their linebackers, the Chargers seem a bit confused, with 4-3 inside linebackers and 3-4 outside linebackers.
On offense quarterback Philip Rivers could use some new targets, but he found just about every target he had on the team last season. Running back Ryan Matthews was fine when healthy. The most important thing, though, is protecting Rivers.
This pick should start a run on offensive tackles, and there are three who are very close to one another: Wisconsin's Gabe Carimi, the 2010 Outland Trophy winner; Boston College's Anthony Costanzo; and Colorado Buffalo Nate Solder. Solder is potentially the best in pass protection . Costanzo is the smartest of the three. Carimi is the better run blocker. Solder is biggest, and in San Diego, the bigger is better philosophy has worked out well on the offensive line.
Really any of the top three is a coup for the Chargers, but Solder is the probable pick.
Logan Mankins held out last season, and he may not come back this year. Mike Pouncey is clearly the best interior lineman in this draft. His identical twin started for Pittsburgh all last season, and there is little reason to doubt that Mike won’t be every bit the player Maurkice is. Of course this changes if the Patriots and Mankins come to terms.
The Patriots also have a bevy of picks, so moving up to take Julio Jones would probably make sense for them and the Texans.
New England won’t reach, and they’ll take a player that fits their system wherever they pick. Given their history with hold-outs, Mike Pouncey is their man.
